So you want your bad team to fall into the lottery? Why?? Most seasons its a wasteland of overvalued “athletes” with “wicked” skills… oh, and no basketball production.
The moral of the story is, just win. You can still pick up prospects without being in the Lottery. Some of the better producers are generally found lower down in the Draft, anyway. The best player by far in this summer’s draft was selected number 39 overall.
Below is an Excel chart that values last summer’s lottery according to wins produced so far. Remember, its very early. But it doesn’t look like we are going to get any difference makers in this crop:
As you can see, the production has been sparse so far, even at the very top of the Draft.
My predictions were just as bad as everyone else’s. For one, I wrote that DeMarcus Cousins would be the best player in the draft. He could be, but he has no idea how to play winning basketball. For one thing, he has “Ralph Sampson’s Disease”… he’s a big man who plays as though he wishes he were a littler man. For another, I thought the Big Ten prospect Evan Turner would be much more valuable. I also thought both Derrick Favors and Greg Monroe would be very bad, and each has been about as good as anyone among the first 16 picks.
Once again, its early. And I still think Cole Aldrich will be a valuable blue collar center, and I have high hopes for a few other players. But the point is, if you want to find a “quick fix” solution in the draft, this chart ought to show you that the Lottery an be filled with more fool’s gold than precious metal.