This morning I did an assessment of the College Marginal Win Scores compiled by the top 20 collegiate prospects (according to NBAdraft and Draftexpress).
College Marginal Win Score is the same as NBA Win Score except it is based upon a 40 minute game and a 201 minute player game. Also, I have to estimate “Opponent Win Score”. I do that by using the defensive statistics on StatFox.com, and then applying statistical distribution analysis to those numbers. Also, it is my belief that the college game features only three positions — Point Guard, 2 Guard/Forwards, and 2 Power Forwards. I distribute the statistics accordingly.
The number next to each prospect’s name is the NBA position they have been playing this season (for instance, a 90% center/10% power forward is a “4.9”).
I also included each player’s college. One last point. I don’t really know how the numbers translate, especially the defensive numbers. As you can see from the OppWS numbers, the college game is a huge step down. Generally, though, you should be able to take the player’s Winning Percentage and use it to assess the pro prospects for the player, but you have to take into account other “contextual” factors as well (the competition, the player’s teammates, the player’s physical size, etc).
Given that, the best prospect looks like the power center from Ohio State, Jared Sullinger. Well, technically speaking, the player with the best numbers is the Power Center from Morehead State, Faried, but he is playing against a much weaker schedule. The injured player from Duke, Irving, looks productive as well. So far I’d stay away from the forward from North Carolina, Barnes. Also, it will be interesting to see how each player performs as the competition gets ratcheted upward.