Evaluating Kevin Garnett’s career using Marginal Win Score

This is the third in a series of posts estimating the wins and losses for some of the best players in NBA history.  Today’s post concerns Boston Celtic PF Kevin Garnett.

Kevin Garnett Win Resume

  WS oppWS MWS W% W__L W>0.5%
             
1995-96 11.43 10.56 0.44 0.579 5.5__4.0 0.7
1996-97 11.56 9.61 0.98 0.669 8.3__4.1 2.1
1997-98 13.84 9.58 2.13 0.869 11.6__1.7 4.9
1998-99 12.73 9.16 1.79 0.809 6.0__1.4 2.3
1999-00 16.26 8.88 3.69 1.131 15.2__(-1.8) 8.5
2000-01 15.71 9.59 3.06 1.031 13.6__(-0.4) 7.1
2001-02 16.92 9.07 3.93 1.171 15.3__(-2.2) 8.7
2002-03 19.51 9.31 5.09 1.371 18.8__(-5.1) 11.9
2003-04 20.55 6.47 7.04 1.697 22.7__(-9.3) 16.1
2004-05 21.17 9.02 6.08 1.539 19.9__(-7.0) 13.4
2005-06 19.73 9.34 5.21 1.391 17.0__(-4.8) 10.9
2006-07 17.63 9.72 3.96 1.181 14.5__(-2.2) 8.3
2007-08 18.33 7.97 5.18 1.389 13.5__(-3.8) 8.6
2008-09 16.07 8.07 3.99 1.175 8.7__(-1.3) 5.1
2009-10 14.36 8.37 3.01 1.012 8.6__(-0.1) 4.3
2010-11 17.58 10.19 3.69 1.131 5.7__(-0.7) 3.2
  16.46 9.05 3.70 1.134   116.1

All of the Opponent Win Scores (“oppWS”) prior to 2002-03 are estimates I made based on the team’s opponent statistical distribution.  The oppWS from 2002-03 onward are all based upon actual observations and recordings posted on 82games.com.  As you can see, the estimates square very well with the eyeball observations.  The same thing occurred when I did Michael Jordan’s numbers.  I am pleased.

As for Garnett’s career, it has been spectacular so far.  That is obvious.  And his 2003-04 season is the best season I have ever recorded outside of my forensic reproductions of the careers of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain.  Garnett’s 03-04 win total and Wins above 500% exceed even Kareem’s historic 1971-72 MVP campaign in Milwaukee. 

That said, Garnett’s “Wins above .500% per 3000 minutes” is (8.1).  That is not as high as Bird, Magic, Barkley, or Jordan, but that is mainly because Garnett entered the Association as a teenager and needed a few seasons to mature.  Its ahead of Kareem’s because, as I outlined yesterday, Kareem hung around way, way too long. 

Garnett’s five best season W>0.5% Total (61.1) is better than Charles Barkley’s (57.7) and Larry Bird’s (60.5), and just behind Michael Jordan’s (61,5), Magic’s (63.9) and Kareem’s (65.6).

Garnett’s defense has always been stout, but you notice that he improves his effort when surrounded by a team that can provide him with some hope of success.  KG’s best defensive effort was not in Boston, in fact it was with the Minnesota team that nearly made the NBA Finals.   This season, however, KG may be showing some wear on his tires.  His defense has regressed almost back to where it was his rookie season, but he has made up the stagger with his improved statistical production.

If you match Garnett minute for minute with Charles Barkley, Barkley comes out ahead as the more valuable power forward.

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One Response to “Evaluating Kevin Garnett’s career using Marginal Win Score”

  1. brgulker Says:

    Although I hate KG, awesome post.

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