Milwaukee Bucks grades at the All-Star Break

Last night I calculated the Wins and Losses I would credit to each of the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2010-11 season.  The Bucks record is 21-34, but Marginal Win Score and the Pythagorean Calculation each credit the Bucks with something closer to 25.1 wins.  So in addition to being bad and hideously unentertaining, the Bucks have been unlucky as well.

Milwaukee Bucks Win Chart at the All-Star Break

  WS oppWS MWS W% W__L W>0.5%
Bogut 13.99 10.81 1.59 0.773 5.3__1.6 1.8
Ilyasova 10.15 8.66 0.74 0.628 3.6__2.1 0.7
Moute 8.67 7.01 0.83 0.644 3.7__1.9 0.9
Dooling 4.31 4.81 -0.25 0.476 2.3__2.8 -0.2
Delfino 6.16 5.84 0.16 0.529 1.6__1.5 0.1
CDR 4.64 4.92 -0.14 0.479 1.5__1.7 -0.1
Boykins 5.79 5.63 0.08 0.516 1.4__1.3 0.1
Brockman 8.91 6.49 1.21 0.708 1.2__0.5 0.3
Maggette 5.89 8.86 -1.49 0.251 1.2__3.5 -1.1
Salmons 3.93 7.67 -1.89 0.185 1.2__5.4 -2.1
Jennings 4.51 7.85 -1.67 0.219 1.0__3.9 -1.5
Gooden 9.98 12.51 -1.26 0.288 0.7__1.7 -0.5
Sanders 7.79 11.57 -1.89 0.185 0.4__1.6 -0.6
TOTALS 7.29 7.89 -0.31 0.452 25.1__29.9 2.2
        Pyth: 25.1__29.9  
        Actual: 21-34  

Grades for the Milwaukee Bucks

The grades below are based on each player’s performance compared with the performance I expected the player to produce, given each player’s history.

Andrew Bogut (B-)

His effort and leadership are always superb, but his scoring efficiency has been abysmal, and once again he’s been hurt too often.  Bogut looks like he has peaked at the level of “better than average”.  But, lets be honest.  He’s the fourth best player on a championship team, not the best player.

Brandon Jennings (D)

I expected Jennings to go forward in his second season.  Disturbingly, he has gone well backward.  He is beginning to reveal himself as a genetic shooting guard, not a point guard.  A recent post on basketball-reference revealed that he was the least likely 30+ minute point guard to pass the ball on any given possession.  He is not a playmaker.  And he is a poor scorer who shoots too much.  And this season his defense has been less than stellar.  What is there to recommend him anymore?

John Salmons (F)

More than any other player, you can point the blame for the Bucks underachievement at Salmons.  He has been terrible.  It makes one wonder whether he was simply playing for a contract last season.  I begged the Bucks not to base their offer on his anomalous post-All Star performance of last season, but they did.

Corey Maggette (D)

Maggette is a decent scorer, but he does absolutely nothing else well.  He doesn’t pass, he doesn’t rebound, and he certainly doesn’t defend.  Oh, and he turns the ball over and has a bad attitude and is old.

Ersan Ilyasova (B+)

Ilyasova is very frustrating because one game he will shoot lights out and the next he will go 3-12, but among all the players on the Bucks , he is the one player who has progressed as I would have expected him to progress.  And he’s not a bad defender either.

Luc Moute (B+)

He isn’t any kind of scorer, but he doesn’t claim to be, and that is not how he got into the Association.  He is a good defender, and an efficient player.  He is the quintessential role player, and a good fit on most teams.  Unfortunately, he plays on a team where no one can score with any efficiency.  And so his problems cannot be covered up. 

Keyon Dooling (B-)

Dooling isnt that great, but again, if everyone else were playing to their expected level, he would be a tremendous third guard.  He comes off the bench with aggression and defense.  He’s playing above where I expected, but his level won’t carry this team.  But he wasn’t supposed to, which is my point. 

Drew Gooden (D-)

He’s been awful and he’s been hurt.  His rebounding is pretty good, but his defense is bad, his shooting is bad, and he is bad.  And the Bucks are on the hook for four more seasons of decline.

Chris Douglas Roberts (B)

I like him.  His production hasn’t been great, and he’s got the Bucks contagious shooting disease, but his defense and effort are both good, and he allows the Bucks to put size in the backcourt.

Carlos Delfino (C+)

Not his fault that he’s been hurt and that he is now very rusty, but “it is what it is” as athletes like to say.  The Bucks were counting on more out of him, and he hasn’t delivered.

Jon Brockman (C+)

Don’t go crazy over the fact that Brockman has good MWS numbers.  That could be the result of selective substitution by Coach Skiles.  I don’t think Skiles would put him in a situation where he could be overwhelmed.  If you look at Brockman’s WS, which is his own personal production, its not very good.  

Larry Sanders (D-)

So far, Sanders has shown the propensity to be a good shot blocker and decent rebounder, but he lacks the heft and strength necessary to defend the post, and his offensive skills are absolutely caveman rudimentary.  Yet he feels the need to shoot whenever he touches the ball!!  Its bizarre.  But, I could say that for the entire season so far, so basically its par for the course.

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