Coming Monday: NCAA Stats

I have done a complete NCAA stat sheet using adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage differential for every expected NCAA Tournament team.   I will post my results on Monday.  You can use them as a guide for your NCAA picks.  I analyze efficiency because its been shown that the best predictor of future success in basketball is a team’s efficiency differential, and my system is basically “efficiency differential” adjusted for opponent strength.  By my calculations, the four strongest teams going into the tournament are: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, and Pittsburgh. 

This year I also added effective field goal percentage differential as a bonus category because Dean Oliver says it is the most important of the “four factors”.  I am going to use eFG differential on close call picks. 

Remember though, the system is only meant as a guide.  It will purport to tell you who the stronger team is in each matchup.  But roughly 28% of all game results are upsets, meaning the weaker team prevails over the stronger team.  So no “system” can ever tell you exactly which picks to make.  You have to decide where the upsets are going to fall.  The danger is, if you miss, you’re f***ed.  That’s why the tournament brackets are so popular.  They’re random.

NFL Lock-Out

Second issue.  My brother asked me to post a summation of the NFL Labor situation.  Frankly, I no longer know much about labor law, or at least I don’t know enough to write intelligently on that particular subject.  Labor law is such a dead letter, its generally not worth the time.  As strange as it sounds, with public employee unions under attack, labor law is sort of becoming a subset of sports law. 

Just the same, the moves and countermoves being made by the NFL and the NFLPA are fascinating to follow. For those who agree, there is a brilliant summation of the situation on Sports Illustrated’s website.

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One Response to “Coming Monday: NCAA Stats”

  1. brgulker Says:

    Awesome. Cannot wait to see this!

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