NCAA Picks (by the preponderance of the numbers)

Below I list the teams that ought to win if the greater weight of numbers dictates the various outcomes.  Not just the numbers I generated, but other numbers generated elsewhere as well.  Of course, remember in around 24% of the outcomes in each round, the weaker team prevails.  I leave it to you to decide where those contrarian outcomes will fall.

Here’s how I’m going to do it.  For the games where the numbers aren’t close, I just list the winner.  In the games where the numbers are close, I list 6 categories of statistics:  the four I provided in my last post, plus the “Simple Rating System” from college-basketball-reference, and what is called “Adjusted Scoring Margin” taken from a site called “Raymond’s Rankings”. 

I chose the winner in each close game by an eyeball assessment of the different numbers, giving the least weight to the first two numbers because they are unadjusted.  If the scale did not seem to clearly tip in one direction or the other, I broke the stalemate using KenPom’s Ratings.

When I characterize a game as a “clear favorite”, it doesn’t mean I’m guaranteeing a win by the particular team, it simply means the numbers aren’t that close. 

Also, the numbers in some instances go against the prevailing winds.  For example, everyone loves George Mason over the slumping Villanova Wildcats, but if you go by the numbers, Villanova becomes the favorite. 

Finally, a disclaimer.  Just use this as a guide to tell you who are the probable favorites.  After that, use your own intuition. 

Second Round Close Games

  MWS eFG AdjMWS AdjEffDiff SRS AdjScMg
             
George Mas 18.71 7.8 19.71 18.7 11.98 12.3
Villanova 12.06 3.3 24.91 19.1 15.72 16.1
West Virg 9.89 2.8 27.33 22.6 16.51 16.9
Clemson 12.49 4.8 20.29 17.1 13.63 14.1
             
Xavier 13.56 5.6 18.09 17.3 12.37 12.32
Marquette 13.54 1.4 25.62 21.3 15.25 15.47
Michigan 4.04 3.3 18.46 16.9 13.2 11.7
Tennessee 5.91 0.8 18.63 15.3 11.9 10.8
             
Cincinnati 16.59 3.5 24.51 23.1 15.7 13.4
Missouri 14.24 2.6 22.81 21.8 15.7 14.3
Temple  15.84 4.1 20.52 17.2 12.7 11.7
Penn State 0.96 -0.7 19.13 15.1 12.1 10.6
             
UNLV 9.39 5.9 18.08 20.4 15.4 14.5
Illinois 12.15 7.7 28.64 22.4 16.7 15.4
Tex A&M 13.11 3.8 20.24 18.7 13.3 11.5
Flor St 14.76 6.6 23.97 17.1 12.9 12.1
Butler  10.71 2.2 15.77 16.5 10.8 11.3
ODU 18.51 1.4 20.96 14.1 9.1 8.9
             
Kan State 12.86 2.7 24.93 20.6 15.1 13.6
Utah State 23.55 9.2 23.81 23.1 13.8 13.8
Gonzaga 21.81 7.6 25.31 19.9 14.3 13.3
St Johns 4.86 -1.1 20.17 18.1 13.9 12.3
             
UCLA 10.26 4.6 20.63 15.2 12.1 10.5
Mich State 6.51 1.1 24.95 17.2 13.9 12.7

Second Round Clear Favorites:

OSU…Kentucky…Syracuse…Washington…UNC…Duke…Arizona…Texas…UConn…San Diego State…Kansas…Vanderbilt…Louisville…Georgetown…Purdue…Notre Dame…Pittsburgh…BYU…Florida

Third Round Close Games:

Washington 20.24 7.9 30.63 26.9 20.9 19.1
North Car 17.51 3.9 31.71 24.8 18.7 17.3
             
Cincinnati 16.59 3.5 24.51 23.1 15.7 13.7
Uconn 13.31 3.3 27.85 21.9 17.3 15.6
Vandy 14.14 8.1 23.94 20.7 15.5 14.5
Louisville 17.41 8.7 28.05 24.1 19.4 17.6
Gtown 10.01 7.8 28.05 22.5 15.7 14.3
Purdue 15.21 5.5 29.23 28.9 20.2 18.9
Notre Dame 19.41 7.5 31.61 24.9 19.2 17.1
Flor St 14.76 6.6 23.97 17.1 12.9 12.1
             
Utah State 23.55 9.2 23.81 23.1 13.8 13.8
Wisconsin 13.91 4.1 27.93 28.5 19.1 17.6
Gonzaga 21.81 7.6 25.31 19.9 14.3 13.3
BYU 20.91 5.9 28.57 27.5 19.1 18.6
             
Mich State 6.51 1.1 24.95 17.2 13.9 12.7
Florida 15.74 3.6 24.97 21.4 15.8 13.9

Third Round Clear Favorites:

Ohio State..Kentucky…Syracuse…Duke…Texas…San Diego State…Kansas…Pittsburgh

Fourth Round Close Games:

Purdue 15.21 5.5 29.23 28.9 20.2 18.9
Notre Dame 19.41 7.5 31.61 24.9 19.2 17.1
             
Washington 20.24 7.9 30.63 26.9 20.9 19.1
Syracuse 20.71 7.2 32.91 25.7 19.3 17.6
             
San Diego St 21.51 6.8 30.59 27.8 18.5 18.3
Uconn 13.31 3.3 27.85 21.9 17.3 15.6

Fourth Round Clear Favorites

Ohio State…Duke…Kansas…Pittsburgh…BYU

Final Four Teams:

Ohio State…Duke…Kansas…Pittsburgh (bold, bold selections… but other than the Texas-Duke game, the numbers clearly favor all of the #1 seeds)

Championship Game:

Ohio State vs. Kansas

Champion:

Kansas

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One Response to “NCAA Picks (by the preponderance of the numbers)”

  1. GoodBread Says:

    Great stuff. One quibble, you have Gonzaga over BYU in the third round, but BYU as a clear favorite in the fourth. Does that still hold if you replace BYU with Gonzaga against Florida?

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