Milwaukee Bucks Meta Wins and Losses Produced

There’s a great article on the WoW Journal regarding the disappointing Milwaukee Bucks.  I took the Win Score wins produced from that article, calculated Marginal Win Score wins produced, and took the Win Shares wins produced numbers from basketball reference, and then averaged the three to get the Bucks “Meta Wins Produced” for 2010-11.  Its always interesting to examine how each player grades out across the spectrum.

Milwaukee Bucks Meta Wins Produced 2010-11
  MWS WS WINSHARE META %diff
Bogut 7.7__2.2 9.1__0.8 5.5__4.4 7.4__2.5 13.60%
Moute 4.2__4.1 4.2__4.1 4.7__3.6 4.4__3.9 2.40%
Jennings 4.1__4.3 3.0__5.4 3.1__5.3 3.4__5.0 5.90%
Salmons 2.5__7.5 3.8__6.2 3.6__6.4 3.3__6.7 5.00%
Maggette 1.9__3.7 2.2__3.4 3.3__2.3 2.5__3.1 10.70%
Dooling 2.9__4.1 2.3__4.7 3.0__4.0 2.7__4.3 4.30%
Ilyasova 2.7__3.1 2.3__3.5 3.3__2.5 2.8__3.0 6.90%
Boykins 2.2__1.3 1.7__1.8 2.1__1.4 2.0__1.5 5.70%
CDR 1.8__1.8 1.4__2.2 1.7__1.9 1.6__2.0 5.50%
Delfino 4.4__1.8 4.3__1.9 3.5__2.7 4.1__2.1 6.40%
Gooden 0.9__2.1 0.8__2.2 1.5__1.4 1.1__1.9 10.30%
Sanders 0.0__3.4 (-0.3)__3.1 0.9__2.5 0.2__3.2 14.70%
Brockman 2.0__0.8 1.6__1.2 1.9__0.9 1.8__1.0 7.10%
TOTAL 37.3__40.7 36.4__41.6 38.1__39.9 37.3__40.7 7.58%

As you can see, the greatest percentage disagreement among the three was on Larry Sanders.  But all generally agree with the premise that he is one more in a long line of terrible draft picks by the Milwaukee Bucks.

All three metrics disagreed on the win impact of Bucks C Andrew Bogut, with Win Score grading him highest and Win Shares grading him lowest, with MWS in the middle.  Bogut was an outstanding possession creator, but a very poor scorer for a center (efficiency wise). 

The Metric Differences

The players that MWS graded differently (where the other two agreed) were Jennings and Salmons.  MWS graded Jennings as more productive, and Salmons as less productive than the other two.

The players that WS graded differently (where the other two agreed) were Dooling, Boykins, and Brockman, all of whom Win Score took a dimmer view of than the other two metrics.

The players that Win Shares graded differently (where the other two generally agreed) were Moute, Maggette, Delfino, Gooden, and Sanders.  In a general sense, I can understand the differences with Maggette (usage) and Delfino (usage), and the Moute difference is slight, but I do not see how Win Shares justifies the higher grading of Gooden or Sanders.  Both players were absolutely awful. 

A strange thing, though.  Year in and year out the one player who nearly always grades the same across the three metrics is Luc Moute.  I don’t know why that is.  He is the kind of “role” player that one would guess would be differently analyzed, but he never is.  All three see him as an average to above average win producer, meaning a pretty valuable player.

Read the post on WoW Journal and the interior link.  Very fascinating stuff.

The three metrics agree on two fundamental things:  the Bucks biggest win producer this season was Andrew Bogut, and the Bucks biggest loss producer was John Salmons (note: I had to assume “losses produced” for the other metrics based on the same logic I use to calculate “losses produced” for MWS: each basketball player is 1/5th responsible for the results on the court, and if one is not producing wins while he is on the court, he is producing losses).

Oh, there’s one other thing the three metrics agree on:  the Bucks sucked this season. But you didn’t need any analytics to tell you that.

Post Script:  Who the hell is Jennings referring to in that interior link on the WoW Journal?  Who did the Bucks trade away that was worth anything?  Jodie Meeks?

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One Response to “Milwaukee Bucks Meta Wins and Losses Produced”

  1. J.D. Mo Says:

    He did say “traded away” didn’t he? Most fans are assuming he was talking about Luke Ridnour and Kurt Thomas, who weren’t traded away.

    Since he can scarcely remember Dan Gadzuric’s name, that leaves Jodie Meeks and Charlie Bell, doesn’t it? Charlie, low production player, terrible for a fantasy team, but a bad-ass defender and reliable three-point shooter, was more integral to the Bucks staying in the hunt last season with a rookie point guard than anybody gives him credit for.

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