2010-11 Detroit Pistons META wins and losses

Having finished the Marginal Win Score individual player win/loss estimates, I now compare them to the results garnered by the two other metrics I really like, David Berri’s “Win Score” (from which, obviously, MWS is derived) and basketball-reference’s “Win Shares”.  I then calculated the three metric results to produce what I call the player’s META wins and losses.

  MWS Win Score Win Shares META
T Prince 4.5__6.1 3.6__7.0 3.3__7.3 3.8__6.8
G Monroe 5.4__3.8 7.8__1.4 6.6__2.6 6.6__2.6
R Stuckey 3.6__5.4 4.5__4.5 5.0__4.0 4.4__4.6
B Gordon 3.2__5.4 0.9__6.7 1.7__5.9 1.9__5.7
T McGrady 4.4__2.5 6.5__0.4 2.1__4.8 4.3__2.6
C Villanueva 0.6__6.3 0.7__6.2 3.1__3.8 1.5__5.4
R Hamilton 1.9__4.3 0.5__5.7 1.8__4.4 1.4__4.8
A Daye 1.3__4.7 1.4__4.6 2.1__3.9 1.6__5.0
B Wallace 2.9__2.2 4.1__1.0 1.9__3.2 3.0__2.1
W Bynum 0.9__3.7 0.5__4.1 1.5__3.1 1.0__3.6
C Wilcox 2.4__1.7 3.0__1.1 2.8__1.3 2.7__1.4
J Maxiell (-0.6)__4.4 (-0.9)__4.7 0.5__3.3 0.0__3.8
D Summers (-0.7)__1.5 (-1.1)__1.9 (-0.3)__1.1 (-0.7)__1.5
        31.5__50.5

As you can see, there is not really any consensus analysis on any of the Pistons, with the possible exception of Chris Wilcox.  WScore and WShares agree on two players: Prince and Wilcox.  MWS and WScore agree on five players: Villanueva, Daye, Maxiell, Bynum, and Summers. MWS and WShares agree on three players: Hamilton, Wilcox, and Summers.

Marginal Win Score tags Charlie Villanueva as the biggest loss producer, while Win Score and Win Shares both agree it should be Tayshaun Prince.

All three metrics agree that the Pistons Most Valuable Player, in terms of wins produced, was the rookie, C Greg Monroe, which bodes well for the Pistons future.  Or, at least it is something to build upon.

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2 Responses to “2010-11 Detroit Pistons META wins and losses”

  1. brgulker Says:

    Greg Monroe surprised everyone in our stream of statistical analysis. I don’t think it was a fluke, either. While I know what the research says about usage vs. efficiency, I do worry a little bit about Greg’s ability to create shots. In short, the Pistons never ran plays for him this year. Almost all the shots he took were off offensive rebounds or penetration and kick, i.e., they were high-percentage looks. I’m a little concerned that if they start running plays for him, and he’s not a good finisher on his own, his efficiency will drop … as unscientific as that concern may be.

    One point of contention for us Pistons fans all season has been Rodney Stuckey. Does he have the capacity to be more than he is? Currently, he’s the most productive guard under contract, so it would seem odd to wish he leaves this summer. Yet, that’s precisely where I find myself. I’m afraid he’ll cost too much. Do you see anything in the data that might be helpful?

  2. tywill33 Says:

    Hey BR!

    Stuckey seems to be “stucky” at the “okay” range. Just like Jennings, I’m afraid.

    You make a great point about Monroe. He was smart enough to circumscribe his game when he reached the pros, Sanders stupidly expanded his, with terrible results.

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