I’m slowly slogging through the individual player win/loss calculations for the just completed 2010-11 season. This year I am breaking down the numbers down a little further so that people can see both the player’s personal Win Score production and the Win Score production of the players that player defended. It has made things a little slower.
Because there are a lot of PistonNation readers, I prioritized the Detroit Piston Win Chart, and I unveil it now (Here is a Step-by-Step explanation of the information contained in each column of the Chart, including information explaining how each column is calculated):
Pistons have too many underperformers
At the beginning of the season I predicted the Pistons would win 32.4 games. By Dean Oliver’s simple Pythagorean, the Pistons should have won 32.2 games. So I was nearly dead-on with my call. I really missed, however, on two of the Pistons young players.
Based upon his college resume, I thought Greg Monroe would be awful. He was actually quite good. And I thought for sure Austin Daye would have a breakout season. He did not. He may be a permanent underperformer.
Which brings me to another topic. The Pistons roster is littered with underperformers, and features virtually no “above 0.500%” win producers. The cumulative roster produced only 2.5 wins above 0.500% and (-13.6) wins above 0.500%. That is a roster you cannot go forward with. It needs to be completely dismantled. (With the exception of Greg Monroe and Jerebko, who never played this season)
The free agent signings of a couple of seasons ago — Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva — have proven disastrous. Villanueva is the team’s “Most Harmful Player” with (-2.9) wins above 0.500% and Ben Gordon is not far behind with (-1.1) wins above 0.500%. How much money did Joe Dumars shell out for those two chumps? You can find below average players anywhere, and Dumars is paying top dollar to these guys??
Players I Got Right
I estimated win percentage correctly on 46% of the Pistons (if its within 0.100 I call it correct). I estimated correctly on Prince, Stuckey, McGrady, Hamilton, Wallace, and Bynum. I’m most proud of the McGrady estimation, because I don’t think many people figured him as an above average win producer, but he was. I came close to nailing his numbers exactly.
I missed badly on Monroe, as I wrote above, and on Daye. I also missed badly on Charlie Villanueva. He normally produces right where I had him estimated, but this season his production declined dramatically.
One final note. Jason Maxiell is a complete enigma. He used to be one of those secret win producers, but now he is just awful. I’m not completely sure why his career took such a trajectory. Oh, and DaJuan Summers has never provided any evidence that he is an NBA level player. The Pistons need to get rid of him.