Marginal Win Score percentile chart

In about two hours I am going to post Win Charts for every single NBA team for the 2010-11 season.  In order to get anything from these charts, you have to have a point of reference.

In order to provide said reference, I borrow an idea from my favorite baseball website, Fangraphs.com.  Fangraphs recently posted a “Statistic Percentile Chart“.  I found the chart exceptionally useful.  Now I know, for instance, how to interpret Prince Fielder’s slugging percentage (actually, I sort of knew before, but not in such detail).

Hopefully my MWS chart will be just as useful to you and will provide the same sort of reference point. BTW, I also have the chart posted as a permanent page on this website.

Two quick points to be made about the results of the chart.

One, if you notice, a winning percentage of 0.500% is not the NBA average. Slightly more than 60% of all qualifying NBA players post winning percentages below 0.500%.  That’s why I call my value statistic “Wins Above 0.500%” rather than “Wins Above Average”. “Wins Above Average” is not semantically correct, and can be misleading.

Which leads to my second point.  When I did my chart I calculated the median point for NBA player winning percentages.  It is what we estimated it was, right around 0.420%, meaning half of the NBA posts percentages above that number, half below.  Thus a team filled with median level players would be expected to win around 34.0 games.

 Marginal Win Score Correspndg Winning % % NBA players above 2.93 0.999 3.80% 2.34 0.899 7.20% 1.75 0.799 12.70% 1.16 0.699 19.00% 0.57 0.599 28.10% -0.01 0.499 39.40% -0.61 0.399 52.60% -1.19 0.299 63.40% -1.78 0.199 74.30% -2.37 0.099 82.90% -2.96 -0.001 89.90% -3.55 -0.101 95.40% -4.14 -0.201 97.60%