2011 NBA Finals Statistical Win Chart: Series very close after Game 3

I keep hearing how Miami is absolutely dominating Dallas and how the Mavericks are somehow a one man team, yada, yada.

That’s the storyline. Unfortunately, like almost all of the work product that comes out of mainstream basketball journalism these days, it somehow does not square with the truth. (What a cathartic moment it was for all thinking NBA fans when LeBron told that dunderhead NBA reporter that he ought to do some more homework and ask better questions.  Just a brilliant riposte by the King — worthy of Prime Minister’s Questions.) 

To discern the truth, I did a statistical Win Chart of the first 3 Games of the NBA Finals. By my calculations, this series is nearly dead even. I have Miami winning around 1.6 games, Dallas around 1.4 games.

The MVP so far is Dirk Nowitzki for Dallas, followed closely by the Miami Heat’s Dwyane Wade. Each has been absolutely brilliant.

On the other side of the ledger, the players who have been the most harmful for each side have been Jason Kidd for Dallas (he has produced on his end, but has been dominated by DWade on the other end), and Chris Bosh for the Miami Heat.  Bosh has been absolutely awful on both ends.

LeBron, for all the clap-trap about him “shrinking”, has been pretty good.

The Mavs are losing this thing in the backcourt.  They have enjoyed a decisive advantage at the two big frontcourt positions, and SF Shawn Marion is blunting LBJ’s impact at the small forward slot, but the Mavericks point guards have been worse than non-existent (I am referring to Jason Terry and Jose Barea. I consider Kidd a shooting guard because he has been guarding Wade the entire series).

Below is the NBA Finals Win Chart I came up with. The Win Chart was constructed using the player matchups and data provided by the GameFlow Charts found on Popcornmachine.net. 

Please note that I multiplied all “Player Games” by 10, in order to avoid undigestably small win and loss numbers.  Thus, on the Win Chart one Finals game is equal to 10 games (technically, I ended up with 31 games for each team, due to rounding). Of course if you want to know each player’s literal win impact, obviously you would divide the player’s wins and losses by 10.

NBA Finals Win Chart (through Game 3)

DALLAS MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Nowitzki 5.72 1.473 7.6__(-2.4) 4.9 12.5
Chandler 4.02 1.186 5.6__(-0.9) 3.3 8.9
Marion 0.21 0.538 2.6__2.3 0.1 2.7
Haywood 3.92 1.169 1.1__(-0.2) 0.7 1.8
Terry -1.64 0.224 0.9__3.1 -1.1 -0.2
Stephenson -0.79 0.367 0.8__1.3 -0.3 0.5
Stojackovic -7.84 -0.829 (-0.9)__2.0 -1.4 -2.3
Barea -7.43 -0.759 (-1.6)__3.7 -2.7 -4.3
Kidd -4.99 -0.345 (-1.6)__6.2 -3.9 -5.5
    MWS: 15.4__15.6    
MIAMI MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Wade 5.48 1.433 7.0__(-2.1) 4.6 11.6
LBJ 2.28 0.889 4.6__0.6 2.1 6.7
Chalmers 3.11 1.029 3.5__(-0.1) 1.8 5.3
Bibby 3.75 1.139 2.6__(-0.3) 1.5 4.1
Miller -0.72 0.379 0.7__1.1 -0.2 0.5
Anthony -2.19 0.131 0.4__2.4 -0.9 -0.5
Howard -1.71 0.211 0.1__0.5 -0.2 -0.1
Haslem -5.32 -0.401 (-1.4)__5.0 -3.2 -4.6
Bosh -5.26 -0.389 (-1.8)__6.6 -4.2 -6.1
    MWS: 15.6__15.4    

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