I’m a little ahead of schedule here, but last night I calculated each NBA team’s Marginal Win Score production by position to determine what each team’s primary needs will be going into the draft and the off-season.
Hat tip to Brian Burke of AdvancedNFLStats — I stole the idea for this post from the posts he wrote in the run-up to the NFL Draft wherein he determined each NFL team’s offensive and defensive needs according to performance at each position as measured by his football performance metric (EPA).
Here is the chart. I have boldened and colored each team’s most pressing need.
A couple of disclaimers here. First, I am not taking into account injured players who will be slated to return next season. For example, Detroit’s most pressing need appears to be at power forward, but they have a pretty productive power forward returning from injury next season, Jerebko, so they may want to instead draft a point guard — their other pressing need.
Second, I didn’t account for in-season moves. For example, Carmelo Anthony provided above average production for Denver, but he is no longer on the team. Thus, that position may be a hidden need position, I don’t know. On the other side of the ledger, OKC appears to need a center, but that may have been filled by the late season acquistion of Kendrick Perkins (although, doesn’t he become a free agent?)
Positional Demand is skewed to the Frontcourt
According to my chart, front court prospects ought to be in the highest demand this summer. Strangely, point guards seem to be the least necessary players. I would have reckoned it would have been the shooting guards.
Speaking of which, will the Lakers finally address their point guard situation? The Derrick Fisher Era must end.
The Bucks appear to have a need at shooting guard. But they just invested heavily at that position last off-season. Will they be willing to draft the same position? Word of warning, though. Shooting guard seems to be the sketchiest position to project. There have been a lot of busts at that position who appeared to be decent college producers.