2011 NBA Finals Win Chart (through Game 4): Miami is the one-man team

Here is my updated NBA Finals Win Chart through Game 4. Remember, the game values are multiplied by a factor of ten in order to make the numbers understandable. So, to determine the true number of wins and losses I am attributing to a given player, divide the numbers stated by ten.

DALLAS MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Chandler 4.92 1.338 8.6__(-2.2) 5.4 13.9
Nowitzki 4.14 1.205 8.2__(-1.4) 4.8 13.1
Marion 0.49 0.588 3.5__2.5 0.5 4.1
Stevenson 0.72 0.624 2.0__1.2 0.4 2.4
Haywood 2.01 0.844 0.8__0.2 0.3 1.1
Terry -2.12 0.143 0.8__4.6 -1.9 -1.1
Stojackovic -7.84 -0.829 (-0.9)__2.0 -1.4 -2.3
Barea -4.69 -0.295 (-0.9)__3.9 -2.4 -3.3
Kidd -5.13 -0.369 (-2.3)__8.5 -5.4 -7.7
    MWS: 19.8__20.2    
MIAMI MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Wade 5.99 1.519 10.0__(-3.4) 6.7 16.7
LBJ 1.09 0.689 4.9__2.2 1.4 6.3
Chalmers 2.69 0.959 4.5__0.2 2.1 6.6
Bibby 2.03 0.846 2.4__0.6 1.1 3.5
Miller -0.36 0.441 1.1__1.3 -0.1 1.1
Anthony -1.81 0.197 0.7__3.3 -1.2 -0.4
Haslem -4.73 -0.301 (-1.3)__5.8 -3.6 -4.9
Bosh -4.84 -0.319 (-2.1)__8.6 -5.3 -7.4
    MWS: 20.2__19.8    

Prior to Game 4, several NBA analysts claimed that “Dirk Nowitzki needs help”, implying that Dallas was a one-man team. To the extent that any team in an NBA Finals can be a one-man team, in this Finals that team has been the Miami Heat.

Dwyane Wade has so far been performing as a “band alone”. You will notice from the chart above that I credit Wade with fully 1/2 of the wins produced by the Heat so far in the Finals. That is remarkable. He’s been brilliant in every possible way (well, he did miss that free throw at the end — but no one is perfect).  

Meanwhile, the rest of the Heatles are not doing their share. Wade has received diminishing assistance from his pal LeBron James, and Chris Bosh… well, he has been awful, simply awful. As a power forward, Bosh can’t cover Nowitzki at all. As a center, Bosh has repeatedly turned Tyson Chandler completely loose on both the offensive and defensive boards.

Speaking of Chandler, when will that guy get his due? Last night he put on a performance worthy of Bill Russell himself.  In the fourth quarter, Chandler’s work on the glass was particularly relentless. Time after time he either extended Dallas possessions or finished Miami’s. He was nothing short of spectacular.  Absolutely righteous.

Everyone talks about how Dallas has suddenly become “tough” and “rugged”. If that is true, it is mainly because of Tyson Chandler. Can’t people see this? He is the one significant difference between the Maverick teams who failed in the playoffs of old and the Maverick team that is currently two games from a world title. His play — especially in comparison to Bosh and Joel Anthony of the Heat — has been more valuable to the Maverick cause than any other Dallas player, including Nowitzki.

Finally, when will Dallas itself get credit for its achievements? First it blew the doors off an excellent Laker team. But, we were told, that was the Lakers “laying down”. Then it pushed back a rising power in Oklahoma City. But, we were told, Oklahoma City “wasn’t ready”. Now it has stood toe-to-toe with a pretty good Miami Heat team. Instead of admiring the Mavericks, many analysts are acting as though the Heat are giving the series away.

Its all so self-serving (“We told you the Heat were better, so if the Mavericks win, it has to be because the Heat failed to play their best.”)


2 Responses to “2011 NBA Finals Win Chart (through Game 4): Miami is the one-man team”

  1. Pade Says:

    Seeing Chandler and Nowitzki so close makes me think of Chandler’s interview after the game last night. First she asked him 2 questions about Dirk, that got my radar up. Then 2 questions about the game and the team in general.. then she called him Dirk lol. Then stopped short before thanking him and calling him Tyson. Dirk’s playing incredible but come on.

  2. jbrett Says:

    I used to play tennis with my best friend. He usually beat me; he was much the better player. Oddly, though, we never managed to finish a set when I was winning. When I finally called him on it, he admitted he felt that any time I was beating him, it could only be because he was playing especially poorly. He’s a lawyer, but perhaps he should have been a sportswriter.

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