2011 NBA Win Chart (through Game 5)

Here’s my updated NBA Finals Win Chart, wherein I attribute wins and losses to individual Finals’ participants (the wins and losses recorded in the Chart are actual wins and losses multiplied by ten):

DALLAS MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Chandler 4.79 1.317 10.7__(-2.6) 6.7 17.4
Nowitzki 3.51 1.097 9.3__(-0.8) 5.1 14.4
Marion -0.19 0.469 3.5__4.0 -0.2 3.3
Stevenson 0.08 0.516 1.9__1.9 0.1 1.9
Haywood 2.01 0.844 0.8__0.2 0.3 1.1
Terry -0.37 0.439 2.9__3.8 -0.4 2.5
Stojackovic -7.84 -0.829 (-0.9)__2.0 -1.4 -2.3
Barea -2.42 0.091 0.4__3.7 -1.7 -1.3
Kidd -4.18 -0.207 (-1.6)__9.5 -5.6 -7.2
Cardinal -2.01 0.163 0.1__0.6 -0.3 -0.1
Mahinmi -2.01 0.163 0.1__0.6 -0.3 -0.1
    MWS: 25.8__24.2    
MIAMI MWS W% W__L(x10) W>0.5% Value
Wade 4.41 1.252 10.0__(-2.0) 6.1 16.1
LBJ 1.05 0.681 6.1__2.9 1.6 7.7
Chalmers 2.21 0.877 5.0__0.7 2.1 7.1
Miller 1.04 0.678 2.3__1.1 0.6 2.9
Bibby 0.42 0.574 2.1__1.5 0.3 2.4
Howard 1.04 0.679 0.7__0.3 0.2 0.9
Anthony -2.57 0.066 0.3__4.4 -1.5 -1.2
Haslem -3.99 -0.176 (-1.0)__6.9 -3.9 -4.9
Bosh -3.73 -0.131 (-1.1)__9.3 -5.2 -6.3
    MWS: 24.2__25.8    

Notes on the Transpontine Madness

The difference in last night’s game was the Maverick  backcourt. Instead of their usual play throughout the Finals, meaning terrible, they actually bettered the Heat at both positions. Jason Terry had an almost unimaginably good fourth quarter, as did Jason Kidd. 

By my calculations, the most valuable player in the Finals to this point has been Tyson Chandler. Chandler has thoroughly outproduced his counterparts, Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh. Anthony, in particular, has done nothing for the Heat.  Meanwhile, Chandler has had one above average game (Game 1) and four way above average games (Games 2-5). The Mavericks are 3-1 in the latter contests. Just saying.

LeBron James has played well below his normal standard, particularly in Dallas. By my numbers, LeBron has had one excellent game (Game 1), two slightly above average games (last night and Game 3), one average game (Game 2) and one well below average game (Game 4). That is not good enough for a player who has been among the NBA’s top 3 for the last four seasons.  LeBron simply needs to do better.  The Heat would probably be kissing the Golden Ball right now if LeBron had performed anywhere near his norm in this series. But the series is not over. If LeBron can ramp up his production in Miami, this Finals should extend to a Game 7, where Miami would have to be considered the favorite to win the NBA title.

The two unsung heroes of this series have been the aforementioned Chandler for the Mavericks, and PG Mario Chalmers for the Miami Heat. I have yet to hear anyone emphatically praise his play, but it certainly deserves emphatic praise.

On the other hand, where has the normal productive Miami PF Udonis Haslem been? By my numbers he has not had a single decent game in the entire Finals. In fact, Haslem has been way below average in 3 of the 5 games, and merely below average in the other two. I thought he was their missing piece.

Mike Bibby has had one outstanding game (Game 2) and he is above average overall because of it. But do not allow that to deceive you. He has not done anything in any other game in the series.

Finally, you notice the Mavericks fortunes turned around when they fragged Peja Stojackovic? He has not been heard from in the last two games, and the Mavericks are better off for it. Dwight Stevenson is doing alright as Peja’s replacement.


3 Responses to “2011 NBA Win Chart (through Game 5)”

  1. jbrett Says:

    This is like Tommy Heinsohn or John Havlicek winning a Finals MVP over Bill Russell. It would never have happened in the 60’s; it would never NOT happen now. Things are slightly better on the Miami side; at least everyone can agree on their MVP.

    Ty, any thoughts on Mike Mitchell, whom we lost earlier this week? I had little access to numbers, but he was the Spur who made this Laker fan most nervous in the mid-80’s.

    • tywill33 Says:

      You know, it shocked me that he went so soon. What was he, 55? Way too young. I recall him vaguely from basketball cards… a smooth small forward. I’m going to look at his career.

      Do you see the irony in the first paragraph? Chandler is the Russell of today, Nowitzki is a combination of Havlicek and Heinsohn.

      • jbrett Says:

        You took it exactly as I meant it. When Russell presented the Finals MVP trophy, I kept hoping he’d go off the reservation and try to give it to Chandler, or at least say he should be. I’d love to hear his private take. Chandler’s domination of Miami’s hole in the middle surely reminded him of wearing out Chuck Share or Ray Felix or Darrrall Imhoff for a decade.

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