The Skinny on Top NBA draft prospects… PART II

Nickola Vucevic (C)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
12.56 58.8 56.1 11.1 1.2
13.09 58.1 54.2 11.8 0.6

Skinny: Vucevic is a foreign big man who actually attended college in the United States and has played three seasons in the Pac 10 Conference for Southern California.  Vucevic’s Win Score, TS% and Rebounds/40 are all average or slightly above average. Vucevic’s 2pt% is below average, as is his Steals/40.  He has outstanding length (9’4” standing reach), and weight (260), but his strength is an issue (8 reps on bench). He could be something like a Zaza Pachulia.

Markieff Morris (PF/C)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
12.56 58.8 56.1 11.1 1.2
16.11 64.1 62.5 14.7 1.2

Skinny: Between the two Morris brothers, Markieff appears to be the much better prospect. He has better size, and much better production numbers across the board, playing against the same competition as his brother.  Markieff is definitely a high value pick at 17, but I think he will go earlier. Markieff has way above average numbers for a PF/C in every one of my “Berri Factors” except for Steals/40, where he is exactly average. 

Alec Burks (SG/SF)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
9.24 56.1 51.1 7.7 1.3
10.1 58.1 50.8 8.3 1.4

Skinny: If the Milwaukee Bucks boil their choice down to Burks and Klay Thompson, I think Burks is the superior player. He does not shoot as well from 3 point range, but he has excellent length and is above average in every significant measurement. If you give me the choice between a specialist and a Jack of All Trades, I choose Jack every time.  I am not saying Burks is an elite player, but he has the markings of a strong win contributor.

Marshon Brooks (SG)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
9.24 56.1 51.1 7.7 1.3
10.31 58.1 55.9 7.7 1.6

Skinny: Another Shooting Guard whom the Bucks have on their radar. Brooks has decent production numbers, but he lacks length and strength, which would probably make him unavailable for small forward minutes, and he lacks any sort of point guard skills. Thus his minutes appear limited to one position, SG. He’s not a bad prospect, I would just prefer Burks.

Jordan Hamilton (SF)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
9.24 56.1 51.1 7.7 1.3
10.51 55.1 48.1 9.5 1.1

Skinny: Another one of those 6’8”, 230ish players who are hard to position. He will play small forward, but he lacks the strength and girth to play power forward.  He has nice production numbers, but he frightens me.  His numbers are mainly based on his rebounding, and I will bet his rebounding numbers decrease due to his inability to play inside. Take away his rebounding, and everything else is below average. 

Kenneth Faried (PF/C)

Skinny: Here is the sleeper of the draft. Faried has all of the traits of Dennis Rodman, and I think he will get the opportunity to play enough minutes to have an impact. That is always the question with so-called “role players”. They project well, but then they never end up getting a chance to contribute (see, Renaldo Blackmon, Joey Dorsey, a host of others). I think Faried will get a chance because he has excellent size, strength, and athleticism, and he is not an offensive clod.  The shots he takes, he makes. And, anyone who saw his incredible rejection of the three point attempt (I can’t remember who he rejected) to move his team on in the NCAA tournament will know he can play defense. If he falls to some good team that lacks what he offers, like OKC or Miami or Orlando, look out.  

Tobias Harris (SF/PF)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
9.24 56.1 51.1 7.7 1.3
9.81 54.1 49.7 9.9 0.9

Skinny: Another “Where do you play him?” SF/PF. Very similar to Texas’ Jordan Hamilton, though less productive. And like Hamilton, Harris’ productivity is reliant on rebounding, something that may not translate to the NBA (SIDEBAR: Let me explain why I keep making that point.  Because of the “Short Supply of Tall People”, most NBA players played one position “to the right” on the spectrum during college (SFs were college PFs, PFs were college Cs, etc). That doesn’t make a huge difference for NBA PFs, because there isn’t much difference between PF and C. But it makes a huge difference for college PFs who are transitioning to NBA SF, because their duties move them away from the basket. That probably translates to a drop in rebounding. If that’s all they have to offer…)

Iman Shumpert (SG/PG)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
7.38 57.3 49.3 4.9 1.6
9.01 52.1 47.4 7.1 3.4

Skinny: Not a great shooter, but a productive player. Look at his steal numbers. That alone makes him worthy of a look. He had a much higher Ass/FGA as a soph and frosh, insinuating he has point guard experience. But, similar to Kemba Walker, he was much more productive as a SG. Plus, like Kemba Walker, he had serious turnover issues at the point.

Kyle Singler (PF/SF)

WS40 TS% 2pt% Reb40 Stls40
12.56 58.8 56.1 11.1 1.2
7.51 54.1 49.7 7.5 0.9

Skinny: If Singler were a legitimate small forward prospect, I would barely rate him as okay. However, I don’t think he can play SF on the NBA level, so I have to evaluate him as a “Big” (similar to Wisconsin’s Jon Leuer, who also has small forward numbers without the perimeter versatility). As a “Big” Singler looks like an awful prospect. Singler rates way below average in every important category.   

 

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