National League Playoff Preview by Position

Below is a listing by diamond position of the “BEOM” average of every starter on the five potential National League playoff baseball teams. 

BEOM is the number of bases each player “earned” for every out he “made”, where (Bases Earned= Total Bases + Base on Balls + Hit By Pitch + Steals) and (Outs Made= Plate Appearances – Hits – Base on Balls – Hit By Pitch – Sacrifice Bunts + Caught Stealings).

National League team Offensive BEOM average and team Defensive BEOM average each have a 0.967 correlation to the number of runs scored and runs allowed, respectively, for each team. So BEOM does a pretty good job of explaining the variation in the number of runs a collective team or an individual player created.

A rough estimate of the average number or runs a player would create “per game”, if he were the only hitter participating in the game, is listed in the last column.  Its actually the number of Bases the player earned for every 27 outs he made translated into a rough estimate of the number of runs those bases would likely produce, using the National League average of 4.21 bases required for every run. 

For a measuring stick, the overall National League average BEOM this season was 0.670. 

Tomorrow I will breakdown each team’s starting staffs and provide their defensive BEOM.  After that I will do an assessment of each team’s defensive capabilities by position.

Milwaukee Brewers

For Brewer fans, it appears the Brewers main offensive strengths are at 1st base, at 2nd base, and in left field.  That must come as a shock.   At each position the team ranks first among NL playoff participants.  However, the team has a number of offensive deficiencies, namely at Catcher, 3rd Base, Shortstop, and on the Bench.  The team ranks last in each category among NL participants.  The Brewers are very top heavy on offense.  For them to prevail their superstars will probably have to carry the day.  Luckily the team features the two biggest run creators in the entire National League postseason.

C      
McCann Atl 0.827 5.29
Montero Arz 0.805 5.16
Molina StL 0.768 4.93
Ruiz Phi 0.739 4.65
Lucroy Mil 0.617 3.95
       
1B      
Fielder Mil 1.042 6.68
Pujols StL 0.959 6.15
Howard Phi 0.841 5.29
Freeman Atl 0.775 4.97
Miranda Arz 0.674 4.32
       
2B      
Weeks Mil 0.825 5.29
Utley Phi 0.783 4.93
Uggla Atl 0.732 4.69
Johnson Arz 0.691 4.43
Schumaker StL 0.589 3.78
       
SS      
Rollins Phi 0.725 4.65
Drew Arz 0.661 4.24
Theriot StL 0.564 3.62
Gonzalez Atl 0.539 3.45
Betancourt Mil 0.533 3.42
       
3B      
Jones Atl 0.809 5.19
Roberts Arz 0.784 5.03
Descalsco StL 0.623 3.99
Polaco Phi 0.612 3.92
McGehee Mil 0.547 3.51
       
LF      
Braun Mil 1.176 7.54
Holliday StL 0.962 6.17
Parra Arz 0.795 5.11
Ibanez Phi 0.638 4.09
Prado Atl 0.611 3.91
       
CF      
Victorino Phi 0.892 5.72
Morgan Mil 0.768 4.92
Young Arz 0.766 4.91
Rasmus  StL 0.741 4.75
McClouth Atl 0.673 4.31
       
RF      
Berkman StL 1.032 6.61
Pence Phi 0.961 6.16
Upton Arz 0.959 6.15
Hart Mil 0.869 5.57
Heyward Atl 0.716 4.59
       
Bench      
StL   0.749 4.81
Atl   0.683 4.38
Phil   0.661 4.24
Arz   0.661 4.24
Mil   0.571 3.66
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