Brewers-Diamondbacks: Complete Positional/Pitcher Breakdown of the 2011 NLDS

Below I have a complete Position-by-Position/ Pitcher-by-Pitcher Breakdown of the monumentally huge (for Brewers fans like me) 2011 NLDS between the Milwaukee Brewers-Arizona Diamondbacks using one statistic: Bases Earned per Outs Made. (“BEOM”)

BEOM has a near perfect (0.967) correlation with Runs Produced (and Allowed by Pitchers).  Its based on old schoolyard, kickball logic.  The guys who get picked are the ones who can advance on the bases without costing the team outs.

Thus, BEOM asks Hitters one question:

(1) How many bases can you advance (on your own steam, meaning without the assistance of a teammate’s hit) for every out you are going to make? Thus, a BEOM of “1.000” means the hitter earns one base for every out he makes. NOTE: I count “sacrifice flys” as outs made, because they are, but I do not count the following as Outs Made:  outs made as a result of sac bunts (because the hitter is being asked to make an out) or outs made on the bases other than outs made through a “caught stealing”.  And I give no “Bases Earned” credit for bases earned as a result of a fielder’s choice or an error. 

BEOM asks Pitchers two separate questions:

(1) Personal: How many bases will you give up by yourself (meaning through home runs — which obviously count as four bases — plus walks and HBP) for every opponent out you can create by yourself (meaning through strikeouts)? and,

(2) w/Defense: How many bases do you and the defense behind you give up for every opponent out you and the defense behind you record?

Bases Earned= (Total Bases + Walks + Hit-By-Pitch + Stolen Bases)
Outs Made= (Plate Appearances – Hits – BB- HBP-SacBunt + CS)
Runs/27= BEOM * 27 / 4.21 (the average number of Earned Bases per Run Made in the 2011 National League)

Breakdown: Very, very close matchup

Below is the BEOM breakdown chart for every position and scheduled starter and the setup guy and the closer.  

Each hitter and each pitcher is given a BEOM (for pitchers, lower is better) and then given a corresponding “Runs per 27 outs” score, and then the scores are compared to the counterpart, and a “Runs per 27 outs” advantage is given to one team or another. 

As you can see from the chart, the positional advantages go slightly to the Brewers.  Most of the pitching advantages, as the matchups set up, go to the Arizona Dbacks. 

So it looks like a deadeven series.  The probable decisive factor that is not factored in is homefield advantage.  That’s why last night’s victory by the Milwaukee Brewers was absolutely monstrous. NOTE:  the Chart has one error.  I gave the “3rd Starter” personal BEOM advantage to Arizona’s Collmenter, when in fact if you read the numbers, it should go to Milwaukee’s Marcum.  Also, since no starters are announced except Gallardo for Milwaukee in Game One, I had to guess at the starting matchups.  I pretty much know how  Milwaukee’s rotation will fall, and I guessed a Arizona’s according to rest and ERA.

C        
Montero Arz 0.805 5.16  
Lucroy Mil 0.617 3.95  
  Adv= Arz 1.21  
1B        
Fielder Mil 1.042 6.68  
Miranda Arz 0.674 4.32  
  Adv= Mil 2.36  
2B        
Weeks Mil 0.825 5.29  
Johnson Arz 0.691 4.43  
  Adv= Mil 0.86  
SS        
Drew Arz 0.661 4.24  
Betancourt Mil 0.533 3.42  
  Adv= Arz 0.82  
3B        
Roberts Arz 0.784 5.03  
McGehee Mil 0.547 3.51  
  Adv= Arz 1.52  
LF        
Braun Mil 1.176 7.54  
Parra Arz 0.795 5.11  
  Adv= Mil 2.43  
CF        
Morgan Mil 0.768 4.92  
Young Arz 0.766 4.91  
  Adv= Push 0.01  
RF        
Upton Arz 0.959 6.15  
Hart Mil 0.869 5.57  
  Adv= Arz 0.58  
Bench        
Arz   0.661 4.24  
Mil   0.571 3.66  
  Adv= Arz 0.58  
         
1st Starter   Personal    
Kennedy Arz 0.711 4.56  
Gallardo Mil 0.811 5.19  
  Adv= Arz 0.63  
    w/Defense    
Kennedy Arz 0.571 3.66  
Gallardo Mil 0.625 4.01  
  Adv= Arz 0.35  
         
2nd Starter   Personal    
Collmenter Arz 0.958 6.14  
Marcum Mil 0.917 5.88  
  Adv= Arz 0.26  
    w/Defense    
Collmenter Arz 0.563 3.61  
Marcum Mil 0.584 3.74  
  Adv= Arz 0.13  
         
3rd Starter   Personal    
Grienke Mil 0.622 3.99  
Hudson Arz 0.731 4.69  
  Adv= Mil 0.69  
    W/Defense    
Hudson Arz 0.619 3.97  
Grienke Mil 0.651 4.17  
  Adv= Arz 0.19  
         
4th Starter   Personal    
Saunders Arz 1.707 10.94  
Wolf Mil 1.267 8.12  
  Adv= Mil 2.82  
    w/Defense    
Saunders Arz 0.704 4.51  
Wolf Mil 0.721 4.62  
  Adv= Push 0.11  
         
Setup Guy   Personal    
Rodriquez Mil 0.448 2.87  
Hernandez Arz 0.466 2.99  
  Adv= Push 0.12  
         
Rodriquez Mil 0.571 3.66  
Hernandez Arz 0.698 4.47  
  Adv= Mil 0.81  
         
Closer   Personal    
Axford Mil 0.499 3.19  
Putz Arz 0.508 3.21  
  Adv= Push 0.02  
    w/Defense    
Axford Mil 0.507 3.21  
Putz Arz 0.509 3.21  
  Adv= Push xxx  
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