Brewers-Dbacks: Arizona winning every phase of the series, except Games

On Monday I read quite a few obituaries for the Arizona Diamondbacks.  As Mark Twain once said, the news was premature.

Had you read this blog, you would have known that the Brewers and Dbacks were pretty statistically even, and that the Brewers had the good fortune of timely hitting to credit for their two win lead.

As you know, I use a comparison of Bases Earned to Outs Made (“BEOM”) for each team in all three phases of the game: Hitting, Pitching, and Defense.  Now, after last night’s shallacking by Arizona, the Dbacks actually lead the Brewers in every single category.  (The National League average BEOM is 0.670 for “Hitters” and “Defense” and 0.951 for “Pitchers” because pitchers only count bases for home runs, walks, and hit-batsmen, and only record strike outs). (SIDENOTE: As you can see below, Arizona is above average in all 3 phases so far this DLS)

If it weren’t for Braun and Fielder, the Brewers would not be in the series.  So far, the Dbacks have shown much more offensive depth.  Comparing each team’s first two hitters in their lineups (not two best, but rather Lead Off and 2nd Hole), the Brewers top 2 (Hart and Morgan) have earned 9 bases and recorded a staggering 20 outs.  By contrast, the Dbacks top 2 (Bloomquist and Hill) have earned 16 bases and recorded only 13 outs.

For the Brewers, the following need to pick their play back up: Tony Plush (he’s been AWFUL — and he should have snared Montero’s first inning double — Plush was in proper position, but he inexplicably failed to stab at the ball with his glove hand), Rickie Weeks (he’s not as bad as his batting average, but he’s better than his current BEOM), Corey Hart (ditto my comments about Weeks), and Jonathon Lucroy, who has been invisible, save for his lucky safety squeeze bunt.

As far as pitching goes, the Brewers two big pickups, Grienke and Marcum, have both been bad.  I don’t so much blame Grienke, as he was pitching on double short rest.  But Marcum absolutely shrunk from the stage last night.  His Bush League tossing of his glove in the air (apparently in an attempt to show up Lucroy — at least that’s how this writer interpreted) was unprofessional.

I worried about Marcum. If you noticed my National League preview, he is far more “defense dependent” than most of the high production pitchers.  Meaning, he relies a lot on his defense to keep men from advancing, and to make outs.  He gives up a lot of long balls, and doesnt strike out enough hitters to offset that.  “Defense Dependent” pitchers can be scary to rely on — Brewers fans remember a certain free agent bust from St Louis who was extremely defense dependent.

Here are the cumulative numbers through last night.  Tonight’s game should be an offensive show, because both starters are very defense dependent.

DBacks
Hitting Bases Outs BEOM
Goldschmidt 10 5 2.001
Roberts 11 6 1.833
Bloomquist 9 7 1.286
Hill 7 6 1.166
Young 9 7 1.286
Montero 6 8 0.751
Upton 6 10 0.601
Collmenter 1 2 0.501
Overbay 0 3 0.001
Parra 0 12 0.001
Burroughs 0 2 0.001
Kennedy 0 2 0.001
McDonald 0 2 0.001
Hudson 0 2 0.001
Blum 0 2 0.001
AVG 59 76 0.776
Pitching Bases Outs BEOM
Kennedy 7 3 2.333
Saunders 1 0 1.001
Hudson 4 6 0.667
Owings 0 1 0.001
Zeigler 2 0 2.001
Hernandez 0 1 0.001
Collmenter 1 6 0.166
AVG 15 17 0.882
Defense Bases Outs BEOM
Game One 11 21 0.524
Game Two 16 15 1.067
Game Three 8 20 0.399
AVG 35 56 0.625
BREWERS Bases Outs BEOM
Braun 12 5 2.401
Fielder 9 7 1.285
Hairston 6 6 1.001
Grienke 1 1 1.001
Hart 6 10 0.599
Weeks 5 9 0.555
Morgan 3 10 0.299
Kotsay 1 2 0.499
Betancourt 4 9 0.444
Lucroy 2 8 0.251
McGehee 0 1 0.001
Counsell 0 1 0.001
Gallardo 0 3 0.001
Marcum 0 2 0.001
AVG 49 74 0.662
Pitching Bases Outs BEOM
Narveson 0 3 0.001
Estrada 0 2 0.001
Saito 0 1 0.001
Loe 0 1 0.001
Gallardo 5 9 0.555
Axford 2 3 0.667
Grienke 12 7 1.714
Marcum 7 4 1.751
Hawkins 2 1 2.001
Rodriquez 2 1 2.001
AVG 30 32 0.937
Defense Bases Outs BEOM
Game One 4 16 0.251
Game Two 11 13 0.846
Game Three 14 13 1.077
AVG 29 42 0.689
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