Brewers-Dbacks: Past numbers don’t look good for Crew in Game 4

I just ran the past numbers of every hitter on the Brewers and Dbacks versus the Game 4 starters:  “Howlin” Randy Wolf for Milwaukee, and Joe Saunders for Arizona.  The numbers tilt decidedly in the favor of the Arizona Dbacks.

Goldschmidt and Hill have not faced Wolf, but every other Snake hitter who has faced him has done well.  The Dbacks who have faced him in their careers have produced a cumulative 51 bases against only 60 outs made (0.851 — the NL average is 0.670).  Ryan Roberts, who has been wearing out Brewer pitching, has worn out the Wolf throughout his career, with 12 bases earned for only 7 outs made.  None of the 7 regulars who have faced Wolf has a career BEOM that is below this season’s NL average.

On the other hand, the Brewers have done “OK” against the Dback starter Saunders, but few other than Bettancourt have faced him for more than 6 PAs.  Bettancourt saw him extensively in the AL and did alright against him, delivering 14 bases for 23 outs made (0.608).  That’s below the standard average, but above Bettancourt’s personal average.  

The one Brewer who has wore him out is Ryan Braun, delivering 8 bases against only 4 outs.  Another who has done well, but whom we may not see, is the Mighty Casey, Casey McGehee, who has produced 5 bases against Saunders with only 4 outs made.  McGehee’s likely replacement, Happy Hairston, has also done well against Saunders, going 5 bases for 5 outs made.

The big Brewer bat who has struggled against Saunders is the “Big Bopper” himself, The Big Daddy, Chantillay Lace — 1b Prince Fielders.  The Prince has not found his saddle comfortable against Saunders producing 1 base and making 5 outs.

Overall then, the Brewers average enough bases to produce about 4.58 runs against Saunders, whereas the Dbacks average about enough bases to produce roughly 5.45 runs per 27 against Wolf.  

But in baseball, on any given night, a team or a hitter or a pitcher can find their groove, or a fielder can catch lightning in a bottle and make a ridiculous catch that produces an out that should not have been one and thereby changes the course of the game and a series and baseball history.  So tune in for the action.

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