Tomorrow morning I will be posting my initial Marginal Win Score MVP Rankings for the 2011-12 season. Those rankings will show that LeBron James is having a fantastic, Bill Russellesque season, and is neck and neck with Dwight Howard for the MVP at this early juncture. LeBron James production has improved across the board. He looks poised for an historic season.
So why the hell are the Miami Heat off to a quasi disappointing start? Look to the other two of the Wonder Triplets. Dwyane Wade and especially Chris Bosh are off to poor starts.
Below is a chart showing each of the 3 players: Marginal Win Score (see GLOSSARY in “Courtside Reading” for a complete explanation), Wins 66 (the number of wins and losses each player is projected to produce over 66 games as a result of his MWS), Wins Above 0.500% (the number of wins he is projected to produce over the 0.500% mark over 66 games) and Value66 (the number of wins over 66 games plus the number of Wins Above 0.500% over 66 games) for the 2011-12 season. Below that are the same evaluations, but using the numbers and minutes each player put up LAST season.
THE BIG ONE AND THE LITTLE TWO
James is rocking, the other two are sagging
As you can see, LeBron James is doing it all. He looks like he is on a mission. He is well ahead of last season’s Value Pace (+4.7 Value wins). The other two Heat Big Three players are well behind last season’s pace. Bosh is -6.7 Value wins off last season’s pace, and Wade is a shocking -9.9 Value wins behind last season’s pace. Thus, James is carrying the team right now.
As for the future, one would expect Wade to eventually warm up. He has a proven track record of success. But Bosh has never been a consistent “superstar” player. He has always been a sort of “Second Tier” star. He’s usually not this bad, but he is up-and-down. That was his career story in Toronto. One season he put up superstar win numbers, the next he was a step or two below that. He is very unpredictable. This could be a season long slump for him.
But, Miami better hope the Little Two wake up. If the team wants another look at a Championship, LeBron will need some help, and soon. Otherwise, the Bulls and Sixers, and even the Magic (if they don’t trade Howard), will be all over them this June.
Remember, tomorrow morning I will be posting the Marginal Win Score MVP Rankings, and they will be interesting I promise. (Preview for the Kobe Contingent: Your boy is having a very good start, despite injury and age).