Analyzing the NCAA Basketball 8-9 Matchups, by the numbers

Theoretically, the toughest picks to make in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament are the 8-9 games in each region.  This year’s tournament features three pretty even match-ups and one match-up that should be one-sided.

Below I post the comparative numbers in each of the 8-9 matchups.  The comparisons are between each team’s statistics and the comparable statistics posted by the mythical “average” team.  The first column features each team’s “Team” and “Opposition” Win Score averages versus the mythical average opponent, and the second column features each team’s “Offensive” and “Defensive” efficiency averages versus the mythical average opponent.  So, for instance, if Memphis averaged a Team Win Score of 44.2, and the Mythical Average Team Win Score against the same schedule were 34.2, then in the first column of “MWS”, Memphis would have a 10.0.  If Memphis had an Opponent Win Score average of 34.2 and the Mythical Average Team had an Opponent Win Score of 44.2, then in the second column of “MWS” Memphis would also have a 10.0.  If Memphis had an offensive efficiency average of 115.0, and the Mythical Average Team had an offensive efficiency average of 105.0, then Memphis would have a first column “PVOA” of 10.0, and so on.

Iowa St-Uconn
MWS  Total
Iowa St 13.4 6.9 20.3
Uconn 12.6 6.5 19.1
PVOA  Total
Iowa St 12.1 5.6 17.7
Uconn 8.1 5.9 13.9
Memphis-STL
MWS  Total
Memphis 12.9 11.2 24.1
St Louis 5.3 12.6 17.9
PVOA  Total
Memphis 9.9 10.9 20.9
St Louis 8.7 11.6 20.3
Alab-Creighton
MWS  Total
Alabama 5.1 11.8 16.9
Creighton 15.6 2.9 18.5
PVOA  Total
Alabama 2.9 11.8 14.7
Creighton 15.2 -0.8 14.4
KansSt-SoutMiss
MWS  Total
Kansas St 6.6 13.2 19.8
SouthMiss 5.7 4.1 11.7
PVOA  Total
Kansas St 6.6 10.3 16.9
SouthMiss 7.5 0.8 8.3
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