My Win Analysis of the 2012 US Olympic Basketball Team

I have posted the 2011-12 NBA Marginal Win Score Win Numbers for the 2012 US Olympic Basketball team on my LiveJournal site (click here).  For now, I am going to post all statistical numbers there, because they post the precise way I want them to (in a readable, organized form).


I must say that the selections made over the weekend were rather inspired.  Every single player selected (Andre Iguodala, Blake Griffin, and James Harden) posted an “elite” level Marginal Win Score (meaning their personal winning percentages were each greater than a thousand percent) whereas none of the players they were competing against (Rudy Gay, Eric Gordon, and Anthony Davis) posted numbers anywhere close (though in fairness to Davis, he does project as an Elite level win producer.)

At the same time, the 2 NBAers who were cut would qualify as pure “scorers” whereas the 3 that were kept probably would not.  Does this mean the NBA establishment is becoming “switched on” (as Brits would say) to the Win Score revolution?  Only time will tell.


With all that being said, the 2012 team does not project to be nearly as strong as the 2008 team.  In particular, the team will be missing a big post presence in Dwight Howard, and if Chris Paul is injured, the 2012 team will be very thin at Point Guard (backup Deron Williams is the only player on the roster who posted a negative Marginal Win Score last NBA season, and the other backup Russell Westbrook is notorious for overshooting).  Moreover, I have no dreaming idea how Carmelo Anthony made the team.  He has NEVER been an elite player… he is strictly a volume scorer.

Even so, any team featuring LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Tyson Chandler and Blake Griffin should be very formidable indeed.  But remember, most every team can be beaten in a one-off.  And as great as that 2008 team was, they were almost knocked off by a clearly inferior Spanish team.  So I am guaranteeing nothing, but the US team should be a heavy favorite to bring home gold from the British Isles this summer.


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6 Responses to “My Win Analysis of the 2012 US Olympic Basketball Team”

  1. bballpants Says:

    You worry too much. Westbrook has flashes of brilliance where he just scares the crap out of the enemy. Deron williams still has his 3pt shot.

    Plus Chris Pual is awesome at point guarding. The versatility of our team is amazing. Every PG can get injured and Lebron can take over point guard.

    The problem is Tyson. He goes down, who’s going to cover the center? Blake? Love? I don’t like the fact we have no true 5 backup.

    • Ty Willihnganz Says:

      I do worry!

      Actually, now that its more competitive, and the NBAers are spread throughout the world, I am really “in to” the Olympics — the basketball aspect that is. The rest I can take or leave.

      I used to like the Olympic boxing, now the competitors are so padded up, they might as well hit each other with Socker Boppers.

  2. MB Says:

    What in the hell happened to Deron Williams last year?? Was it the injury?

  3. jbrett Says:

    I have it in my mind that the 2008 Olympics were the ONLY time that Melo has been truly efficient and productive; the idea was that the shorter 3-pt shot, as well as a reluctance to be King Ballstopper on such a talent-laden team, managed to smooth over his normally jagged edges.
    Problem is, I have no idea WHY I have that in my mind, or who’s responsible for putting it there. Do you have any numbers that address this theory/fallacy?

    • Ty Willihnganz Says:

      I think that’s true… he did have a good 2008 Olympics. Did you notice Michael Redd on there? What a joke that he was even on that team.

      • jbrett Says:

        I’m thinking Redd was the knee-jerk solution to The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight which had been the previous National Team.

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