How to read the NBA Marginal Win Score Win Charts


Below on this site I have published for the first time in 14 years Win Charts for every NBA team and every NBA player who has played at least 200 minutes

WHAT ARE WIN CHARTS?

The Win Charts are an attempt to attribute wins and losses to each NBA player. Other sites attribute wins to players, but i also attribute losses to them based on the logical assumption that every minute a player is on the court he is either producing a win or a loss. So why attribute losses? For the same reason baseball’s batting average includes at-bats. If a player takes up more time to produce wins he is harming his team.

WHAT ARE PLAYER GAMES?

Player ”Games” are based on the idea that in every minute of every basketball game there are five different games being played between five different counterpart opponents the sum of which will decide who wins and who loses. If each team went ”Wilt Chamberlain” and played the same five players in every minute of every game then each would have a 1/5th responsibility for the outcome of that game, and would have 100% responsibility for a full ”game” after five games. Thus, each player ”Game” is calculated by dividing the player’s minutes by the total team player minutes divided by the number of team games played.

HOW ARE WINS AND LOSSES CALCULATED?

Wins and losses are based on Professor David Berri’s simple yet revolutionary basketball win metric. Berri’s metric is based on the belief that a player helps his team win basketball games by converting shots into points and by gaining and possessing the basketball. Unlike any other basketball metric, Berri gives no credit to players for merely shooting the ball. His research found no win production value in missed shots.

So under my calculation each player produces wins according to his Berri production. Where my metric is slightly different is my belief that for each of the five players on a basketball floor there is a counterpart opponent who’s uniquely situated to stop that player from producing a high Berri score. Whether you are at the local YMCA or Madison Square Garden when 10 basketball players take the floor each of them matches up with someone on the opposing team of relatively equal height or weight and it is that player’s duty to outproduce his or her counterpart in order to produce a win. If you go 5 for 6, and the player you are guarding goes 6 for 6 you are not advancing your team’s ability to win.

Thats why my metric is a direct comparison of each player’s production (Berri Score) against the production of the player’s counterpart opponent (Opp Berri). Since there is, no doubt, a team component to “defense” below each ”Opp Berri” score this year i also list the Opp Berri score yielded by the team at the exact position played by the player when the player is not on the floor. Thus you can now see that although Mitchell Robinson is a very productive player for the Knicks, when he is on the court Counterpart Opponent’s Berri production soars by more than 25% and thus he is a below 0.500% player… his Counterpart centers consistently outproduce him, and since the team does much better limiting production at the position he plays when he is not playing it, there is little doubt the extra opponent production is primarily his fault.

WHAT IS THE ”VALUE” RATING.

The Value Rating is simple. Its the sum of the wins produced by a player and the wins produced ”over 0.500%”. Its based on the theory that a player who produces 10 wins and 1 loss is far more valuable to a team than a player who produces 10 wins and 10 losses. It rewards both win production and win production efficiency. Its based on a similar rating used by Pete Palmer to evaluate baseball players.

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