Posts Tagged ‘Rookie of the Year’

Ranking every 2012 NBA rookie performance using Marginal Win Score

March 9, 2012

Kawhi Leonard: Los Rookie of the Year Leader

Using the basketball metric known as Marginal Win Score, I have measured the contribution of every single NBA rookie who has played at least 100 minutes this season, and I have ranked each according to his “Value” Score (wins plus wins above 0.500%).

ROOKS tm WS dWS MWS W% W__L W0.5 V
K Lnard SA 12.63 7.47 2.57 0.939 3.3__0.2 1.5 4.8
R Rubio Min 7.65 5.78 0.93 0.661 3.7__2.0 0.9 4.5
K Faried Den 19.71 8.76 5.47 1.431 2.3__(-0.6) 1.4 3.7
C Prsons Hou 8.41 7.14 0.63 0.611 2.5__1.7 0.4 2.9
G Ayon NO 13.98 9.82 2.08 0.856 2.1__0.4 0.8 2.9
E Kanter Uta 13.21 9.41 1.89 0.825 1.8__0.4 0.7 2.5
D Wllms Min 10.06 8.69 0.68 0.618 2.0__1.3 0.3 2.3
J Butler Chi 10.76 -2.46 6.61 1.624 1.1__(-0.4) 0.7 1.8
K Irving Cle 8.01 8.75 -0.37 0.439 1.8__2.4 -0.3 1.5
N Vcevic Phi 12.72 11.67 0.52 0.591 1.3__0.9 0.2 1.5
T Thmpsn Cle 9.24 9.11 0.06 0.514 1.3__1.2 0.1 1.4
I Thomas Sac 6.49 7.16 -0.33 0.445 1.5__1.8 -0.2 1.3
J Harrllsn NY 11.74 9.62 1.06 0.682 1.0__0.4 0.3 1.3
L Allen Phi 11.45 11.04 0.19 0.536 1.0__0.9 0.1 1.1
I Shmprt NY 3.23 4.69 -0.73 0.377 1.5__2.4 -0.4 1.1
K Thmpsn GS 4.69 5.06 -0.18 0.471 1.2__1.3 -0.1 1.1
S Mack Was 7.05 6.57 0.24 0.543 0.9__0.7 0.1 0.9
A Burks Uta 3.08 2.57 0.25 0.546 0.9__0.8 0.1 0.9
J Jhnsn Bos 8.85 6.11 1.36 0.734 0.6__0.2 0.2 0.8
J Stone Den 8.54 3.76 2.39 0.908 0.5__0.1 0.2 0.7
J Hmiltn Den 9.01 8.79 0.11 0.521 0.3__0.2 0.1 0.3
R Jcksn OKC 1.49 3.82 -1.16 0.305 0.5__1.1 -0.3 0.2
B Bymbo Cha 10.47 12.78 -1.15 0.306 0.7__1.7 -0.5 0.2
M Mrris Pho 7.74 10.64 -1.45 0.256 0.8__2.4 -0.8 0.1
M Broks NJ 5.85 8.59 -1.37 0.268 1.0__2.8 -0.9 0.1
J Wllams NJ 10.02 12.62 -1.31 0.281 0.3__0.6 -0.2 0.1
J Leuer Mil 9.82 12.62 -1.39 0.264 0.5__1.4 -0.4 0.1
K Wlker Cha 6.05 9.09 -1.52 0.244 1.1__3.3 -1.2 -0.1
E Mre Bos 0.86 3.89 -1.51 0.245 0.2__0.7 -0.3 -0.1
T Hrris Mil 8.21 11.43 -1.61 0.229 0.3__1.0 -0.3 -0.1
J Slby Mem -2.13 2.61 -2.36 0.101 0.1__0.8 -0.4 -0.3
W Rssll Det 0.56 5.43 -2.43 0.089 0.1__1.1 -0.5 -0.4
C Sngltn Was 5.69 10.09 -2.19 0.129 0.4__2.7 -1.2 -0.8
I Jhnsn Atl 7.44 9.44 -0.99 0.333 0.6__1.3 -0.3 -0.9
D Mrris LAL 1.97 11.73 -4.88 -0.326 (-0.2)__0.7 -0.4 -0.6
C Jsph SA 2.15 10.77 -4.31 -0.225 (-0.2)__1.0 -0.6 -0.8
C Hggns Cha -3.49 4.47 -3.98 -0.173 (-0.2)__1.3 -0.7 -0.9
N Smith Port -2.24 9.43 -5.83 -0.487 (-0.3)__0.9 -0.6 -0.9
C Jnkins GS 2.98 13.89 -5.45 -0.423 (-0.3)__1.0 -0.6 -0.9
J Pargo Mem -2.64 7.85 -5.24 -0.387 (-0.4)__1.6 -0.9 -1.4
J Vesely Was 5.16 12.78 -3.81 -0.143 (-0.3)__2.2 -1.2 -1.5
N Cole Mia 0.83 6.56 -2.86 0.016 0.0__3.3 -1.6 -1.6
J Frdtte Sac 2.48 11.12 -4.32 -0.229 (-0.6)__3.5 -2.1 -2.7
B Knght Det 3.12 9.96 -3.42 -0.078 (-0.4)__5.6 -2.9 -3.3
6.12 8.20 -0.88 0.351 -11.8 22.8

SF Kawhi Leonard the ROY leader

As the chart shows, in terms of Value Ranking, Kawhi Leonard has passed the Spanish Sensation Ricky Rubio right by.  Leonard is having a spectacular season for the Spurs, and you barely ever hear about him.  What a shame.

Rubio has come back to the pack, but he is still having a pretty good season.  Fellow PG Kyrie Irving is proving to be a productive player, but he struggles on defense.  I expected that to happen to Rubio, but not to the Duke-trained Irving.

Derrick Williams has come on very strong for the Timberwolves as well.  What a massive upgrade he is over the awful, awful SF Michael Beasley.  Whoever the Twolves dump Beasley on is going to be in for a dip in the standings.

Two other players who need to be mentioned are SF Chandler Parsons of the Houston Rockets, and someone named Ayon, who plays PF/C for the New Orleans Hornets.  I never heard of Ayon, to be honest with you, but he is very productive.

The larger story is the general lack of production from rookies in general.  The entire rookie class has a collective Value Ranking that barely exceeds the Value Ranking of Miami SF LeBron James!  Rookies simply do not contribute very much to a team.  That’s why it is foolish to pin too much of your hopes on the draft.  Only one or at most a handful of rookies ever make a significant contribution to their NBA teams.

And you run the risk of having them destroy your season.  PG Brandon Knight is absolutely killing the Detroit Pistons.  Same goes for PG/SG Jimmer Fredette and the Sacramento Kings.  I thought “JimmerMania” was supposed to hit the NBA?  Jimmer cannot make baskets at the professional level.  The Kings drafteed a better player inm the second round when they drafted Washington PG Isiah Lord Thomas II.

The Garbage King of the rookie class appears to be Chicago rookie from Marquette Jimmy Butler.  Butler has barely played this season, but he has been unbelievably productive when he has played.  In fact, in terms of Value, he has contributed more to the Bulls in his short minutes on the court than Kyrie Irving has contributed to the Cavaliers.  Whether that will bear out over the long haul is pretty doubtful, but nevertheless an impressive debut for a pretty lightly regarded prospect.

EDIT:  The original post contained a monster oversight.  I missed PF Kenneth Faried from the Denver Nuggets.  Luckily, he is coached by George Karl, a man who hates rookies who are not scorers.  Had Karl played Faried anywhere near the minutes his production demands, Faried would be the ROY leader, and I would have had to edit the entire post.  Thank you, George.

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Ricky Rubio is boat-racing the NBA Rookie of the Year field, according to Marginal Win Score

January 14, 2012

“Rubio! Rubio! Rubio!”

The electrifying Ricky Rubio, rookie SG/PG for the Minnesota Timberwolves, is erasing all doubts about his ability to compete and succeed on the NBA level.  He is off to a fantastic start.  According to the metric “Marginal Win Score”, and the off-shoot “Value” ranking, Rubio is the most valuable rookie to date, and the only other rookie who is giving him any chase whatsoever is the SF/PF Markieff Morris of the Phoenix Suns.

Here is a ranking of the rookies, using Marginal Win Score (see GLOSSARY to the right under “Courtside Reading” for full explanation), and projecting the number of wins and losses, wins above 0.500%, and “Value” each player will provide his team over the course of the 66 game season (Value is “Wins” plus “Wins above 0.500%).  To make the ranking, each rookie must have played at least 100 minutes so far.

RANK WS oppWS MWS W% Wins66 >0.5% V66
R Rubio 10.35 3.91 3.22 1.048 8.7__(-0.4) 4.5 13.2
M Morris 14.15 6.29 3.93 1.169 6.8__(-1.0) 3.9 10.7
C Parsons 11.88 4.71 3.58 1.111 5.8__(-0.6) 3.2 8.9
J Leuer 11.94 6.97 2.48 0.924 4.8__0.4 2.2 7.1
E Kanter 15.27 7.36 3.95 1.172 4.2__(-0.6) 2.4 6.6
K Leonard 12.61 10.32 1.14 0.696 4.4__1.9 1.3 5.7
N Vucevic 16.84 12.08 2.38 0.906 2.8__0.3 1.2 4.1
K Irving 6.68 7.19 -0.26 0.459 3.4__4.0 -0.2 3.2
D Williams 8.69 8.55 0.07 0.515 2.9__2.8 0.1 2.9
A Burcs 4.45 0.61 1.92 0.828 2.1__0.5 0.8 2.9
C Singleton 7.65 8.51 -0.43 0.439 2.8__3.5 -0.3 2.5
I Thomas 6.58 5.79 0.39 0.569 2.2__1.6 0.3 2.5
J Harrelson 10.25 11.09 -0.41 0.431 2.4__2.9 -0.3 2.1
K Walker 4.64 5.41 -0.38 0.437 2.4__3.2 -0.4 2.1
T Thompson 9.43 10.34 -0.45 0.425 2.0__2.8 -0.4 1.6
M Brooks 7.99 10.79 -1.39 0.265 1.8__4.9 -1.6 0.2
K Thompson 1.69 4.49 -1.39 0.266 1.3__3.7 -1.2 0.1
J Pargo -0.14 5.01 -2.57 0.066 0.3__4.2 -1.9 -1.6
N Cole 1.35 7.21 -2.93 0.001 0.0__5.8 -2.9 -2.9
B Biyombo 5.52 14.36 -4.42 -0.247 (-0.8)__3.9 -2.3 -3.1
J Fredette 0.42 9.37 -4.47 -0.256 (-1.7)__8.3 -5.1 -6.8
B Knight 4.71 14.02 -4.65 -0.287 (-2.3)__11.0 -6.6 -8.9
AVERAGE 7.86 7.93 -0.03 0.497

Rubio rules, Jimmer sucks

As you can see, Rubio and Morris are the only two rookies who are projected to provide double digit Value to their teams.  Rubio is a superstar in the making.  He looks like the Second Coming of Jason Kidd.  Morris, the lesser respected of the two Morris brothers, is also a dynamo.  He looks like an outstanding middle of the first round pick.

Another player who is adding tremendous value is SF Chandler Parsons of the Houston Rockets.  Parsons is not a dynamic scorer, but he does the little things that produce wins, and he does them well.

In the fourth spot is the Milwaukee Bucks PF/C Jon Leuer.  Raise your hand if you thought he would be a productive pro. I am a graduate of Wisconsin and I follow the Badgers closely and I thought Leuer had no shot at all to be a good pro.  He looked like a big man “drifter” who was too weak to bang in the Association.  Not so.  The Bucks are showing once again that they are the Masters of the Second Round, Disasters of the First Round.  If they could only hit on a first rounder every decade or so, they might have a good team.

The top pick Kyrie Irving has been okay, but nothing more for the Cavaliers.  Same thing with Derrick Williams of the Timberwolves.  I’ll give each some more time, but usually superstars come out of the gates playing like superstars, but each is very young so we have seen dramatic improvement from real young players from year one to year two (LeBron comes to mind, but he was out of position as a rookie).

On the back end of the race, excluding those who have not even gotten off the pine, are Brandon Knight of the Detroit Pistons, and Jimmer Fredette of the Kings.  I guess we can put a hold on “JimmerMania”.  He looks awful!!  And Brandon Knight, who didn’t project well, is really crushing the Pistons chances of doing anything this season.  Both look like big-time “Misses”>

One final comment.  I keep hearing what a difference Norris Cole was/is making for the Miami Heat.  Ahhh, not according to Marginal Win Score, unless you mean “difference” in the negative sense.  He’s been terrible.  His personal Win Score is well below average.  In college he rebounded well, but I’m always leery of high college Win Scores that are produced as a result of rebounding way above position (unless the player is a power forward).  It always seems that those kind of players get to the NBA and no longer believe that rebounding is part of their job description.  Memo to Cole: you can’t shoot and you can’t protect the ball.  Time to get your knuckles dirty and start rebounding.  You might as well do something positive for the Heat.