Quick Win Projection for the truncated 2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks season

I did a very, very quick projection of the number of wins the Milwaukee Bucks might post this season based upon the MWS48 winning percentages posted by each Bucks player over the last 3 seasons, plus a guesstimate at each player’s playing time over the course of what I project to be a 15965 minute season (66 games * 241.9 player minutes per game).

2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks Projected Win Chart

A Bogut 6.1__0.8 0.859
C Delfino 3.8__1.7 0.699
B Jennings 3.2__3.5 0.476
M Dunleavy 2.8__2.1 0.582
B Udrih 2.8__3.6 0.434
L Moute 2.7__2.2 0.555
S Livingston 2.2__1.9 0.548
E Ilyasova 2.0__2.1 0.499
S Jackson 2.0__4.2 0.316
J Brockman 2.0__0.8 0.701
K Dooling 1.6__2.7 0.374
D Gooden 1.6__2.7 0.368
T Harris 0.6__1.7 0.269
L Sanders 0.4__3.3 0.115
PROJECT 33.8__32.2 0.512

 Projections based on 3 season averages

As I indicated above, each win projection was based upon each roster players 3 season win average (the Win Charts from the last three seasons are in the column on the right) plus each player’s average amount of overall team playing time (with adjustments).

Andrew Bogut and Carlos Delfino have been Steady Eddies for the team over the last two seasons (three seasons for Bogut).  The team needs each player to play more minutes, however.  Injuries have limited both, and I am projecting that the same will occur this season.

Actually, ever holdover Buck has posted a pretty consistent winning percentage over the past two to three campaigns.  Ilyasova has been right around a 0.500% player, Moute a little better, Jennings a little worse, and Dooling has been a consistently middling player.  Drew Gooden is either a 0.300% level player or he’s right around 0.500%.  I projected him closer to the latter because he is getting up there in age.

So, once again I am projecting the Bucks above 0.500% for the season.  Last season I had them as a 47 win team, and I was way off.  The reason I was so far off was that players like John Salmons and Corey Maggette both had unusually terrible seasons.  But that can happen.  If the Bucks do indeed win 33 games this season, I would think they would make the play-offs.  That’s about the best we can hope for in Deer Country until the team somehow lands some higher impact players.

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