They’re Only Soph-o-mores

TREY AND MILES LOOK GOOD AGAIN

Today we turn to the performances of the NBA sophomores in the 2022 NBA Summer League. For the second straight summer, the Pelicans Trey Murphy and the Knicks Miles Mcbride looked excellent. The other standout soph was the Warriors Moses Moody.

SOPH WIN CHARTS

Below is the Berri48 performance of each NBA vet I picked out who played multiple games in the Vegas Summer League along with their projected Opponent Berri48 and the corresponding Win Percentage. Please note I am not projecting the top performers to perform that well. Its statistically improbable, given that only 5% of NBA players produce wins above 0.900%. Nor do I project the bad performers to be that bad. That said, Warrior fans have to be discouraged by the continued under production of C James Wiseman. He’s not even close. On the flip side I think Murphy, McBride, and Moody will eventually be reliable win producers.

11 Prospects aaannnd the Summer League

Bennedict Mathurin WAYYYY outplayed my projections in a small sample size

HOW DID THE PROMINENT PICKS PRODUCE?

The Summer League is over. It is a VERY small sample size, yet it is interesting nonetheless. Below I list the top 10 draft picks (and the Bucks pick) who played at least 10 minutes of action and their projected ”Opp Berri” based on the team that drafted them and the position I project them to play.

BENNEDICT MATHURIN WAS A REVELATION

Keegan Murray was exactly the ”safe bet” I and others believed he was going into the NBA Draft. But Indiana Pacers G/F Bennedict Mathurin and Detroit Pistons G Jaden Ivey were extremely productive. Top pick Paolo Bonchero and Jabari Smith were not as productive, though Bonchero — in limited time — showed a surprising amount of playmaking ability. Wisconsin Badger G and Washington Wizard draftee Johnny Davis really struggled in limited time, as did Bucks draftee Marjon Beauchamp, although a WNBA executive who is a friend of mine and who was in Vegas for the Summer League told me he looked ”raw but spectacular”.

Here is the Win Chart:

How to read the NBA Marginal Win Score Win Charts

Below on this site I have published for the first time in 14 years Win Charts for every NBA team and every NBA player who has played at least 200 minutes

WHAT ARE WIN CHARTS?

The Win Charts are an attempt to attribute wins and losses to each NBA player. Other sites attribute wins to players, but i also attribute losses to them based on the logical assumption that every minute a player is on the court he is either producing a win or a loss. So why attribute losses? For the same reason baseball’s batting average includes at-bats. If a player takes up more time to produce wins he is harming his team.

WHAT ARE PLAYER GAMES?

Player ”Games” are based on the idea that in every minute of every basketball game there are five different games being played between five different counterpart opponents the sum of which will decide who wins and who loses. If each team went ”Wilt Chamberlain” and played the same five players in every minute of every game then each would have a 1/5th responsibility for the outcome of that game, and would have 100% responsibility for a full ”game” after five games. Thus, each player ”Game” is calculated by dividing the player’s minutes by the total team player minutes divided by the number of team games played.

HOW ARE WINS AND LOSSES CALCULATED?

Wins and losses are based on Professor David Berri’s simple yet revolutionary basketball win metric. Berri’s metric is based on the belief that a player helps his team win basketball games by converting shots into points and by gaining and possessing the basketball. Unlike any other basketball metric, Berri gives no credit to players for merely shooting the ball. His research found no win production value in missed shots.

So under my calculation each player produces wins according to his Berri production. Where my metric is slightly different is my belief that for each of the five players on a basketball floor there is a counterpart opponent who’s uniquely situated to stop that player from producing a high Berri score. Whether you are at the local YMCA or Madison Square Garden when 10 basketball players take the floor each of them matches up with someone on the opposing team of relatively equal height or weight and it is that player’s duty to outproduce his or her counterpart in order to produce a win. If you go 5 for 6, and the player you are guarding goes 6 for 6 you are not advancing your team’s ability to win.

Thats why my metric is a direct comparison of each player’s production (Berri Score) against the production of the player’s counterpart opponent (Opp Berri). Since there is, no doubt, a team component to “defense” below each ”Opp Berri” score this year i also list the Opp Berri score yielded by the team at the exact position played by the player when the player is not on the floor. Thus you can now see that although Mitchell Robinson is a very productive player for the Knicks, when he is on the court Counterpart Opponent’s Berri production soars by more than 25% and thus he is a below 0.500% player… his Counterpart centers consistently outproduce him, and since the team does much better limiting production at the position he plays when he is not playing it, there is little doubt the extra opponent production is primarily his fault.

WHAT IS THE ”VALUE” RATING.

The Value Rating is simple. Its the sum of the wins produced by a player and the wins produced ”over 0.500%”. Its based on the theory that a player who produces 10 wins and 1 loss is far more valuable to a team than a player who produces 10 wins and 10 losses. It rewards both win production and win production efficiency. Its based on a similar rating used by Pete Palmer to evaluate baseball players.

NBA Southwest Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA SOUTHEAST DIVISION

NBA Pacific Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA PACIFIC DIVISION

NBA Northwest Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA NORTHWEST DIVISION

NBA Southeast Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA SOUTHEAST DIVISION

NBA Central Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA CENTRAL DIVISION

NBA Atlantic Division Marginal Win Score Win Charts

NBA ATLANTIC DIVISION

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My numbers say the Dwight Howard Lakers won’t be dominant

Using a win prediction system I used with some success to accurately forecast last season’s Laker record and Clipper record and Bucks record, I took a stab at an early forecast of the new Dwight Howard/Steve Nash Lakers.  My numbers don’t forecast Laker domination next season, which surprised me.  My early prediction is that the Lakers will post 52.7 wins and 29.3 losses, making them a homecourt playoff team, but not necessarily a shoe-in for the NBA Finals.

Click Here to see the LA Lakers Breakdown

After the Big 4, the Lakers are junk

I have to throw in the caveat that the only roster I had to work with was the “under contract” roster listed in the salary section of Hoopshype.  I can’t possibly believe this will be the Lakers Opening Night roster.   There are too many glaring holes.  For example, right now the Lakers have Devan Ebanks as their only backup shooting guard.  That’s untenable. He stinks.

Putting that aside, though, the major question mark for the Lakers next season will be the role and productive capacity of PF Antawn Jamison.  When he was in Cleveland without LeBron, and in his last season in Washington, his production was horrible.  On the other hand, during his short stint with LeBron in Cleveland, his production was okay.  So which is it?  Is he no longer suited to a lead role, and instead more comfortable and productive as a support player?  Or was that short stint an aberration temporarily disguising the sharp decline of an aging, undersized power forward who no longer has the athleticism he once relied upon to be a productive player?  I’m not sure, but I have to go with the evidence, and the evidence suggests Jamison is shot.  Therefore, if the Lakers lean heavily on Jamison, which it looks as though they have to do given their roster and salary structure, then that reliance will cost them dearly.

Another reason the team is not that much better is the substitution effect.  While the Lakers have gained two extremely productive players in Nash and Howard, their impact is blunted a bit because the Lakers have lost two other productive players — SF Matt Barnes and C Andrew Bynum.  The pair combined to produce 14.8 wins and no losses for the Lakers last season.  Nash and Howard will do better, but not dramatically better.

But again, the main reason for the surprisingly weak victory prediction is the team’s complete lack of depth.  My numbers predict that the team’s Big 4 — Howard, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, and Steve Nash, will combine to produce 42.8 wins and 2.2 losses.  My numbers predict the rest of the roster will produce only 9.9 wins and 27.1 losses.  After the Big 4, the Lakers don’t have much.

Remember though, I assume the Lakers will upgrade their bench talent before the start of the season.  If and when they do I will revise my numbers.